Nequa

Join Date 09/2007

+14

What do think will happen to the Middel East if oil is replaced by alternative fuels?

As frontlines fuel of war, and Tom clancys EndWar show what happens to the world when oil in the middle east is gone, it goes to hell. But what will happen when oil is no longer needed? The middle east would have major changes easily predicted some we will find out when it happens (and it will happen). What can be easilly prdicted is the major spending by oil rich countrys (like saudi arabia) will stop, before oil saudaia arabia was a backwards kingdom, but with oil it went going forward fast, with oil importence gone it is going to make cutbacks, which is not going to go well. Another thing is them using control of oil as a political weapon, people rember when oil when saudi arabia cut of are oil. The middle east can stop oil when they want to, like if they dont like what we are doing in Iraq. but with out oil the rest of the world will find it easy to exert thiert infulence on it. Middle east military power is a joke (except for Iserial, which is one of the best, but is diffrent from the rest of the middle east), look at what America did to Iraqs army during desert storm and the invasion of Iraq, Iraq had one of the largest armys in the world when sadduam was in charge. It only took the U.S three weaks to defeat them. terriost will still play a key part but without oil they would need to do more drastic actions for prees coverage, and funding. I have convered the basics. Do you guys have anything to add?

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RonLugge

Join Date 05/2004

+50

Just a side note, but while alternative fuels might solve the need for gasoline, we utilize petroleum for much more than just gas. Lubricant, oil, lip balm and a dozen more I can't think up off-hand.

Oh, and I wouldn't place too much emphasis on how easily the "US" defeated Iraq's military. I'm not an expert, but I believe some other people helped the US... and while I don't have any hard evidence, I sincerely doubt the Iraq military was really "up to par" even my middle eastern standards.

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Once alt. fuels replace oil the middle easts economy will be left in absolute ruins. To paraphrase the Vasari " The Middle East is Ours for the Taking"

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With the depletion of oil reserves there will be anarchy all across the board...but if countries like Oman are smart (and they are) they will increase their trade surpluses and foreign reserves/investement in foreign markets. They also have done magnificently in expanding their tourism trade with some of the largest projects in the gulf to date (hotels and island resorts built with the oil money.
The following is an exerpt from the cia.gov factbook on Oman:
Oman is a middle-income economy that is heavily dependent on dwindling oil resources, but sustained high oil prices in recent years have helped build Oman's budget and trade surpluses and foreign reserves. Oman joined the World Trade Organization in November 2000 and continues to liberalize its markets. It ratified a free trade agreement with the US in September 2006, and, through the Gulf Cooperation Council, seeks similar agreements with the EU, China and Japan. As a result of its dwindling oil resources, Oman is actively pursuing a development plan that focuses on diversification, industrialization, and privatization, with the objective of reducing the oil sector's contribution to GDP to 9 percent by 2020. Muscat is attempting to "Omanize" the labor force by replacing foreign expatriate workers with local workers. Oman actively seeks private foreign investors, especially in the industrial, information technology, tourism, and higher education fields. Industrial development plans focus on gas resources, metal manufacturing, petrochemicals, and international transshipment ports.

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Sorry I hit Tab or Return and didn't get to finish my post.

The world factbook is a real time site updated regularly by the U.S. government to keep all the information current on "everybody". Several gulf states are preparing for the day that oil is depleted. What people don't understand is that our entire way of life is built with petroleum, not just gas and heating feul, but the process to make other objects. We will never stop using oil until every trace is completely gone and they know this. Petrolium products are in everything.....and I mean EVERYTHING that is man made today. Plastics can not be made without it. Now think about that a second...no oil no plastic...no tuperware...no forks and knives for the picnic...no pens (no ink no plastic shell for the pen), no styrafoam, no diapers, no fans (electricity is produces by burning feul oil or coal and no plastic for the fan anyway). I could go on for hours but like I said every process uses petroleum in some form...either to transport it, creat it, or actually is in it. I imagine it will be like gilligans island when we are forced to live without it...everything made out of wood or coconut shells.
They are even experiments going on to extract parts per billion from sandbars at the bottom of the ocean to try and plan for when the main reserves run out and the world is desperate. It's a lower grade of petrolium sure, but you have to keep on making products after the fall of oil no matter what the cost until every
ounce is gone.

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Just a side note, but while alternative fuels might solve the need for gasoline, we utilize petroleum for much more than just gas. Lubricant, oil, lip balm and a dozen more I can't think up off-hand.

Industrial agriculture uses a LOT of oil, and not just for fueling tractors. Most fertilizer is petroleum-based, and without it, we wouldn't have anywhere near the capacity for growing the food we're used to eating.

Also, for the question in the subject line, I'm sorry to say that I seriously doubt that oil will ever be replaced by alternative fuels. It's a pipe dream, and one that too many people seem to share.

I mean, sure, it would be very nice if the men and women in white coats came up with some kind of solution for our self-destructive addiction to oil, but I'm not sure they even have time.

And, frankly, I don't see many countries, much less individual humans, willing to reduce oil consumption to sustainable levels. Rather than waiting for a magical solution, people need to stop driving cars, eat locally-farmed food, abandon the notion of "suburbs", eat less meat, etc... and it's just not happening.

I apologize for depressing everyone. Please carry on.

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Also, I just saw a show tonight that was about algae that is in actual production to produce oil...that's right...some forms of algae actually are a biofeul, I mean to say petroleum...as much as 50 percent. we've only explored 250 out of 25000 types of algae so far in the few years since it's recognition as a possible biofeul...especially since it takes up less space and can be grown vertically using gelbags in long strands rotated around what looks like a clothing rack at a cleaners except on an industrial scale hundreds of feet high just soaking up the sun....ethanol has to take up acres upon acres of growing space and is only as high as the corn. This stuff has the potential to be grown in as much as .01 percent of the space. They have already identified several kinds of the algae that have very good potential as replacements for diesel and some grades of gasoline. You want to talk about an investment to get into!!! and then we don't have to worry about our agriculture spaces being used for feul production anymore, back to making food for export to the world.

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There are a lot of alternative energy sources as most of you are probably aware. It's rather limited to discuss silly corn fuels. Increased reliance on all forms of alternative sources such as nuke energy, and coal (Espcially these and no dumb jokes about coal run cars), will start to cut our dependence on petroleum. Other sources will help as well and these number in the dozens but some very viable alternatives are hydrogen cells, bio-fuels, methane, etc.

Twilidelit: You are talking about Bio-diesel. The algae don't make petroleum they make a fat and that fat is as much as 50% of thier mass and can be used as a fuel source. I realize you probably just mistyped a bit there.

AS to what will happen to the middle east? In some parts it will remain largely unchanged but those whose lives have been changed by oil will suffer. Look for economic collapse in countries that would have massive trade defecits without oil revenue (saudi arabia, UAE, Kuwait) The Tourism is about all these countries have going for them otherwise and it certainly can't support thier decadent lifestyles. Political turmoil would erupt, I don't think I need to speculate on what would take place then, suffice to say a culture of violence exists in the middle east any where there is poverty (blame israel? Explain yemen then, or just outside sudan? somolia? Eretria/Etiopia?, Lybia and Egypts war?)

As to agricultural and mechanical petroleum uses, we do produce terror-free oil sufficent to fill these needs, and there are alternatives here as well.

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if that happens the only country in the middle east who will not collapse is Israel which has no oil and its number one resource is mostly high-tech ...ohh and oranges hehe.

then all the muslim countries will actualy have to study and educate in order to survive hopfuly bringing the amount of fanatics to minimum.

only Iran which is the biggest supply of oil can have a lame excuse 4 a nuclear power programm like "we need more energy" ROFL..

how come they are poor and saudi arabia are stinking rich? one wonders...also Iraq .

but then again why do we need oil to vanish in order to have a better sourch of energey? its not like we ran out of horses so we invented cars...

if the US and other countries will invest in new energey resources i'm sure we have the tech even 2day to come up with something better..

problem is the US like most countires dont really give a @#!~ about it.

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Were going to have to go nuclear . I dont like being held over the barrel by the middle east. Sure there will be protests and uproar but people will adapt. Problem is created by politicians doing to little to late as usual. This scenario has been comming for a long time, Sorry to be harsh about it but we just shouldnt be reliable on an instable country for stability. Its a timebomb and politicians are too busy with their finger up their backside they wont think up things to solve the problem or if people are being unreasnable, impose sanctions on them. Because lets be honest the oil people right now are laughing all the way to the bank and probably want to see the west screwed. Thats high on their agenda.

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To be honest I think we will end up destroying our self's long before we run out of oil. If not by war then by changing climate. Only the most well developed countries will have any chance at surviving. Even then I suspect massive lack of resources and the death of 60-70% of the populace.I also agree with redwingdw28, we will have to rely on nuclear energy. I know many people are against it but, it is a clean reliable source of energy. I could really care less what happens to the middle east. In fact I wouldn't be the least bit upset at the downfall of their religion and culture. The last thing this planet needs are a bunch of religious fanatics running around trying to blow us all to hell because we don't believe in their god.

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When oil is replaced the midle east will go back to being a bunch of nomadic tribes running around chopping each others heads off. Just like it had been for thousands of years until oil came on the sceane.

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Oil has tremendous amounts of energy, and is relatively cheap. Why we need to switch from oil to renewable is beyond me, renewable just doesn't have the same punch.

Militarizes will help push the useage of renewable resources though. Never fun to be at war with someone who has your main strategic material.

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Once upon the time Jamaica was richest island on earth because of sugarcane. Look at it now.

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Alternative...like what? overpriced ethanol (yay tree hugging, democrat hippies, you ****ed up again!)

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I am not the smartest person, but some of you guys need some oil 101 classes.

My take on this, there is plenty of oil it will never be depleted just cost more to get. There are tons of alternative energy ideas but noone really bothered until now because gas is so cheap. Now that it isn't so cheap the scientists can make more money off those hybrid electric cars. You go to a dealership last year and you ask yourself is the extra 5k for a hybrid car really worth it?

The problem is they can't pump out it fast enough for our consumption and China is consuming tons of it as well so prices go up (otherwise everyone would be waiting at the pumps to buy their gas). Nobody even mentioned the fact that we have enough on the planet at current consumption to last hundreds of years. Its the rate at which we can pull out of the ground.

The main reason why the middle east is an oil boomer is because its so much easier to pull oil out of their sandy soil which makes it cheap. We have so much of our own oil in the U.S. and off our coast but we don't drill it because its more expensive to take it out of our type terrain.

I hope you get my point. So, in the end, the middle east will not run out of oil, only easily drillable oil, and we will always use oil for something. Stop the doom and gloom theories. (Although it is fun to think up those scenarios).

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Actually Iraq has, or had one of the largest armies in the world. I would have to say Great Briton and Canada helped out the U.S. the most.

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My Fellow Earthlings

It is only logical that with the advance of our technologies that we seek new alternative ways of producing energy and bettering efficiency. Oil has been a huge source for making fuel and for the production of other things that many of us take for granted all around the world. The problems that we face now are nothing new with the ever increasing prices of oil. This has been known for over thirty years and yet it has become more of a problem now because why? The answers to this question maybe never ending.
Here's a suggestion maybe everyone should just not buy gas for a week and see what impact that would have on the profits the oil companies are raking in and maybe then the oil companies might agree to reduce the price of oil. Let us not forget that it was only a few weeks ago when the oil companies sat in front of a panel of congressman and senators in Washington and stated that the billions of dollars in profits they are currently earning was justified as to keep them more competive with the world market. This is not something the governments of our world can fix but rather screw up even more. Supply and demand, we must lessen our demand for oil. It is up to us the common folk to make a change or stand.

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RonLugge

Join Date 05/2004

+50

Also, for the question in the subject line, I'm sorry to say that I seriously doubt that oil will ever be replaced by alternative fuels. It's a pipe dream, and one that too many people seem to share.

Why is it a "pipe dream"? There are plenty of alternative fuel sources out there, its just that no ones spent the money to develop them from prototype to full scale development.

Alternative...like what? overpriced ethanol (yay tree hugging, democrat hippies, you ****ed up again!)

Ethanol's "overpriced" nature might have more to do with lack of demand than anything else -- its not a "major" fuel yet, so we aren't producing as much as we might. Ergo the overhead to keep it in stock is split up amongst a much smaller group of people.

Oh, and ethanol is hardly the only proposed alternative fuel (and concerns over driving up food prices are exaggerated as well, food prices are already artificially high because the government set a floor for the buy price and buys up the excess). One in particular that I've studied is called OTEC -- ocean thermal energy conversion. It used the difference in temperature between surface water and water 30 feet or more down to drive generators, with no known environmental effects. In addition to producing electricity, you can use that electricity to generate ammonia which would also work as a fuel source (you'd have to redesign engines, though -- its octane rating is through the roof! Compared to gasoline anyway...)

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My take on this, there is plenty of oil it will never be depleted just cost more to get.

While this is true, you have to realize that there is a point where the cost of getting the oil surpasses the benefit of getting it. For example, if it costs me $100 to get to work, where I will earn $75, there's not much point even going in to work, is there? (Hmm, that doesn't sound so bad, actually...)

Canadian tar-sands are an example of this. Lots of oil there, but no easy way to get it out. Maybe they'll find more efficient ways, but existing technology isn't able to make it very accessible.

Nobody even mentioned the fact that we have enough on the planet at current consumption to last hundreds of years.

Citation, please? Granted, it's difficult to estimate just how much oil there is--and this isn't helped by Saudi Arabia et al exaggerating their reserves--but "hundreds of years" sounds waaaaaaaay off to me. Many people are saying that we have either peaked already or are very close to peaking.

Actually Iraq has, or had one of the largest armies in the world. I would have to say Great Briton and Canada helped out the U.S. the most.

Um, no. Canada passed on the illegal adventure in Iraq, thankfully.

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What will happen to the middle east? They all should be selling oil to Asia and we should be buying our oil from Brazil. I'm not sure how many of you keep up with the news, but they found a huge cache of oil, possibly the world's largest supply, in Brazil. There is oil all over the planet, enough to drive prices below a dollar again if the proper refineries were allowed to be constructed. If there wasn't so much government-environmental regulation we could be helping the Brazilians and also drilling in Alaska, Gulf of Mexico, and other places. There's no shortage of oil in this world--just a shortage of capacity to retrieve it. Thanks to the idiots in power, unfortunately, gas is going up like crazy and so is food. This ethanol stuff is a joke and notions that we're running out of oil are a scam. We have more oil than ever before because our ability to find it continues to improve.

There are viable sources of alternative energy out there. They've been around for at least a decade. Things like hydrogen and perpetual electric systems. In Europe there's an inventor that had a motorcycle and small car running off just a glass of water. In Europe and Australia there's inventors who have created a generator that provides constant electric power using only magnets, which could power today's hybrid vehicles without the need of the combustion engine. Unfortunately, a lot of people behind these new advances tend to wind up dead or scaling their projects back so instead of using a single cup of water, now they use water an a gas engine. The powers at play in the world don't want you to stop using oil and they don't want new sources of energy to come into play. If we're going to be stuck with oil, then we need to start making it more available and drilling in new places would be best. It's been years since we've expanded drilling and even longer that we haven't built any new oil structures, especially refineries.

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At the current consumption rate of coal we will have enough coal to last us 48 years everybody. For gasoline its about double that. Now i'm not saying its a crises... but some people should definatly return their hummer 2 with 9mpg (RON LUGGE).

You know, ghostwrs, in Europe it costs $7.50 a gallon... consider yourself lucky you get to loose $25 a day.

If alternative feuls ever indeed replace fossil feuls (like in Brazil) then we will stop being so nice to Saudi Arabia. In my opinion the reason we didnt knock on Saudi Arabia's door after 9/11 was because they were a complient oil exporter to the US. What would we gain economically from invading Saudi Arabia? More oil that they already are giving us? No, Iraq was much more economically feasable... we just forgot how pissed off people can be when they get invaded. Who would have known!

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The fundi Islam extremists are against a lot of western business knowledge, tech and democracy, several things they need to diversify their economy away from oil.They will lose the influence they have over other countries and no one will give a damn.They will sink into irrelevancy.

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Just a side note, but while alternative fuels might solve the need for gasoline, we utilize petroleum for much more than just gas. Lubricant, oil, lip balm and a dozen more I can't think up off-hand.Industrial agriculture uses a LOT of oil, and not just for fueling tractors. Most fertilizer is petroleum-based, and without it, we wouldn't have anywhere near the capacity for growing the food we're used to eating.Also, for the question in the subject line, I'm sorry to say that I seriously doubt that oil will ever be replaced by alternative fuels. It's a pipe dream, and one that too many people seem to share.I mean, sure, it would be very nice if the men and women in white coats came up with some kind of solution for our self-destructive addiction to oil, but I'm not sure they even have time.And, frankly, I don't see many countries, much less individual humans, willing to reduce oil consumption to sustainable levels. Rather than waiting for a magical solution, people need to stop driving cars, eat locally-farmed food, abandon the notion of "suburbs", eat less meat, etc... and it's just not happening.I apologize for depressing everyone. Please carry on.

Please allow me to show you the fallicy of this statement read below

Just a side note, but while alternative fuels might solve the need for gasoline, we utilize coal for much more than just. Lubricant, lip balm and a dozen more I can't think up off-hand. Industrial agriculture uses a LOT of coal, and not just for fueling tractors. Most fertilizer is petroleum-based, and without it, we wouldn't have anywhere near the capacity for growing the food we're used to eating. Also, for the question in the subject line, I'm sorry to say that I seriously doubt that coal will ever be replaced by alternative fuels. It's a pipe dream, and one that too many people seem to share. I mean, sure, it would be very nice if the men and women in white coats came up with some kind of solution for our self-destructive addiction to coal, but I'm not sure they even have time.And, frankly, I don't see many countries, much less individual humans, willing to reduce coal consumption to sustainable levels. Rather than waiting for a magical solution, people need to stop driving cars, eat locally-farmed food, abandon the notion of "suburbs", eat less meat, etc... And it's just not happening. I apologize for depressing everyone. Please carry on.

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um nothing will happen oil will still be a valuble commodity long after we stop powering cars with it.

jet fuel
plastic
machine oil
most ships

all of the above require oil so unless someone comes up with working fusion power anytime soon none of that is going to change.

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Two posts to make here because they are separate issues, firstly on a comment about iran

"only Iran which is the biggest suppl of oil can have a lame excuse 4 a nuclear power programm like "we need more energy" ROFL..."

- Why should they have to justify having a nuclear power program to the US AT ALL? the US didnt ask anyone if it was okay to develop a bomb, AND THEN USE IT, nuclear power was an afterthought. Its the same damn thing, why do the US think it has the moral justification to dictate this (moral justification), what because youre the "GOOD" guys, bullshit there arnt good guys or bad guys there are just people.

Its just one group of people telling the other what they cant have, this is the natural point of view the ordinary person in Iran has, just as it would obvious to me or any of us if we'd been born there.

By the way im white, western and actually relatively pro US (relatively)

.

I believe in nuclear disarmament, something the US and my native UK signed up to long ago and then have disregarded, scandalous why oh why, the world does not need nuclear weapons, think about it you can annihilated a country without them (if you were so disposed). People actually forget what its like to use these weapons on people, any people, take a minute to think about it.

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