After playing many games it is apparent that you must maintain a strong military to prevent an agressive civ from attacking you. This is just part of the game. No matter how high you diplomacy or influence. No matter how much tribute you dole out, you will eventually be attacked if your military is weak. It makes it impossible to pursue a purely peaceful strategy.
However, I think that economics should play a greater role in the AI's decision of when (or if) to attack. If a weak player or AI (militarily) has a strong economy and/or many trade routes it can reasonably be siad that the elimination of the player would have a rippling effect on the galactic economy. As such, an aggressive AI might think twice about attacking an economic superpower. Not only will its economy suffer, but the economy of its allies will suffer too. (e.g. There are a lot of countries that don't like the U.S, but only a few would be willing to "shoot themselves in the foot" economically by attacking the U.S.)
At the very least, the attacking AI should suffer political consequences from its decision to be agressive. (Regardless of whether or not the attacked civ had alliances)
Thoughts?
B.