Reading up on this, it sounds like the most plausible explanation, assuming not everyone banned is cheating, is that MW2 allows for hackers to set their own lobbies up that uses IW's old system to inject modified files into other players' game folders.
So people could have unwittingly downloaded hacks, due to some idiot running a server and their own ignorance of what was going on.
Certainly if that's the case, then Valve should ban the guys with the hacked lobbies and not the people who just happened to be connected to it.