I find the lack of attention on the smurf issue from IC to be astounding. They know that their MP is coming apart and smurfing is apart of it. Why get online and play against an ass when you can just set the AI to hard and atleast get a semi good game going.
Smurfing has hurt the game, but it isn't the real factor that pretty much killed having reasonable online player counts for Sins. In fact, it's not the minidumps nor players' ability to host games (big problem before 1.1) that killed it.
Rather, the problem is that for whatever reason, the game sold to people who only play it in single player. Let's do the numbers, if this game sold 1 million copies, which doesn't seem like a bad estimate since it had been previously reported to have sold 600,000 over a year ago, then you would expect far, far, far higher player counts online than anything we've ever seen before. We acknowledge that it's a good game that at least some people would want to play for a long time. It thus doesn't seem unreasonable to say that 1% or even half-a-percent of those 1 million buyers would want to come play it online regularly, which is an extremely conservative estimate, which means that we should see 5000 (0.5%) to 10,000 people who would want to play it online over ICO. However, the highest player counts that I have ever seen are around 280 about two or three months after the game's release. I know that the game is getting old, but still, during the most popular playing times (weekends) you would hope if not expect to see player counts of 500-1000 people. Instead you rarely see it surpass 150 people onine at the most busiest times.
So, I don't think it's the minidumps and lack of hosting nor smurfing that killed the game. Rather, it has something to do with the audience that bought the game, perhaps not your traditional RTS audience. It could be argued that people's perception of the length of the games is what killed it, but still, you would think that 0.5% or 1% of the purchasers would be curiosu about online multiplayer in spite of that. I'm really at a loss for being able to explain Sins's failure as an online multiplayer game in terms of player counts. It can't be the minidumps, smurfing, or the previous lack of hosting because less than 1% of everyone who ever bought the game would have ever experienced that as a problem. Now, that 1% and 0.5% back-of-the-envelop calculation is very conservative; realistically you would tend to think that 5% or 10% of the buyers would be interested in online multiplayer at some time.
Another possible explanation is that although us dedicated Sins players think it's a great game, in reality it really didn't get its hooks into most people. It's very possible that people bought it, enjoyed it for a month, and then lost interest. I know some folks who tried pirated versions of it and then lost interest after a couple games and I know two other guys who bought it and actually did play it online for a little while and then completely lost intrest in the game.
For those reasons, I don't think that smurfing or minidumps or the pre-1.1 hosting problems killed the game for online multiplayer. I think the problem is more fundamental than that.