My in-game watching of laser-shields battles makes me believe attack generally trumps defenses. The cause is watching my 1/2 (1 las / 2 las def) ships getting trumped by 3 las / 0 las def ships.
But also hitpoints adds into it as > means longer standing power. So I'd say it's weapon damage potential per hitpoint that is the best formula for figuring out your ships' values, with your defenses merely adding more hitpoints iff you chose right, and those hitpoints are 'regenerating' hitpoints. In the first example, basically my defense wasn't regenerating my hitpoints fast enough to make a difference (maybe extra thought should be given to the percentage of def to hitpoints though as well, as in this example a ~1 def to 4 or 8 hitpoints isn't much coverage, but say a 1 def for every 2 hitpoints is great coverage.
So really defense is a gamble.
But it's a great gamble when your enemies have very predictable weapon types, as a little goes a long way, since defense = regenerating hitpoints if your defense counters your enemy's weapons. In that case, 1/3 uncountered attack to 2/3 defenses is like invulnerability. Otherwise though, figure your defenses are just insurance, and that it's better to have only 1/3 defenses, with the broadest spectrum of types that you can afford.
Overall, weapons + hitpoints + logistics (which is really just a multiplier for more weapons + hitpoints)+ miniaturization (more weapons, but I'd estimate it's only like a +1-2 weapon level, like researching an Laser VI or VII, so least important until you have a couple levels of miniaturization) is the way to go when you can afford high research levels, but when you have to cut research to build during a tough war, then 'band-aid' defenses and more miniaturization (more defenses per hitpoint) to upgrade your ships is the way to go to try to both out-turtle and out-produce the enemy. But any quick gains, the free +10 weapon abilities, etc.. are appreciated in the middle of a war of course as long as they're as cheap or cheaper than the defenses, and lastly the hitpoints of bigger ships. Basically think of the defenses as a strategic parry-riposte during a war to render the enemies ships so you can then effortly cripple their economy (take planets and resources).
I haven't considered cost per weapon vs. cost per defense though. That will make a difference if you tend to wait until a war starts to build up your military.
At any rate, early on, more weapons.

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