*** TOP SECRET *** CLEARANCE LEVEL BLUE ***
THE FOLLOWING DOCUMENT IS CLASSIFIED UNDER ARTICLE 22 OF THE ALLIANCE ARMED FORCES CHARTER
1.0: Introduction
Sir,
The following document has been prepared for your use and that of the AAF:G and AAF:S commands by the Office of Special Operations. Although focused on the needs of the current diplomatic and military crisis, it is the end result of approximately three years of painstaking work by OSO assets focused on the Torian Confederation. The information within is sourced for both ELINT and SOINT assets, and it is the qualified opinion of this Office that it represents a comprehensive and accurate assessment of Torian threat assets relevant to the requirements of the current crisis. The OSO has prepared supplementary briefings if necessary, but it is my belief that the following can serve as a solid starting point for AAF policy in regards to the Torian threat.
2.0: Background
Torians are bipedal sophonts from Toria, a Class 13 planet located in Sector 14-17. They are amphibious, spending most of their lives on land but conducting most aspects of their reproductive process in water. Although much of their physiology is mammalian, they are oviparous, with Torian females laying clutches of roughly 10-40 eggs. This accounts for the rapid population growth that Torians have become infamous for.
In approximately 995 BCE, Toria was invaded and conquered by Drengin Empire forces using a stargate that had been launched at slower-than-light speeds roughly 7000 years prior. According to the Torians, their pre-invasion civilization, then at a pre-industrial state, was largely peaceful and spiritually inclined; it is currently impossible to determine how much of this claim is ideologically-driven nostalgia. The Drengin ruled Toria with typical brutality until the early 21st century CE, when continual Torian resistance and planetary resource depletion rendered their imperial project economically unfeasible. Following the Drengin evacuation, the Torians established a united world government - the Torian Confederation - and claimed the abandoned Drengin technology on their planet. It is probable that this abrupt transition from pre-industrial to post-industrial technology levels has been responsible for the current disrupted nature of Torian civilization.
Following their acquisition of hyperdrive technology, the Torians have aggressively expanded their domain to the extent that, until recently, they could be considered the undisputed hegemonic power of known space. In addition to rapid colonial expansion, the Torian Confederation has pursued a militaristic political course, justifying its actions through the need to gain resources to supplement those of its devastated homeworld. In their wars of aggression, the Torians have conquered the Akilians Dominion and the Yor Collective, been instrumental in forcing the collapse of their old enemies in the Drengin Empire, and fought against the Korx, Krynn, and Arceans.
Alliance political tensions with the Torian Confederation can be dated back to first contact, when it became apparent that the Confederation was an extremely powerful (though then largely unknown) interstellar entity. Initial suspicions were apparently justified by the subsequent aggression behavior of the Torians, as well as their large-scale research on Precursor ascension crystals. Although certain judgments about Precursor technology are always difficult, it is the general belief of OSO that continued research by the Torians into these crystals would have had extremely negative consequences. It is fortunate that the Confederation has apparently lost its political will for the project following the destruction of most of the ascension starbases by the Arcean military.
Unfortunately, this same event has precipitated the current crisis. The Torians' retaliatory campaign against Arcean space has seriously weakened the Arcean military forces, and assessments suggest that a major breakthrough may be near. Widespread public sentiment for assisting the Arceans in accordance with the terms of our defense treaty continues to grow. On a more immediate level, meanwhile, the continuing Torian war against the Dominion of Korx has brought that entity close to collapse, raising the possibility of vastly-increased Torian influence in Alliance core regions.
2.1: Torian Tactical Assets
Although Torian tactical doctrine formerly relied heavily upon fighters and other small craft, in recent years this policy has largely been abandoned. The current basic Torian space combat force instead consists of a battleship escorted by 4-6 frigates. It should be emphasized that this is a numerically-superior force to any AAF:S task force - like some other alien civilizations, the Confederation currently possesses superior logistical and fleet-management ability to ours.
The most common Torian fleet unit is the Type 9 "FLOUNDER"-class frigate. Although long-ranged and reasonably well-armed, it lacks any sort of defenses and is considered inferior to our Mark 4 Battle Axe-class cruiser. Increasingly, however, the Type 9 is being supplanted - particularly among front-line Torian fleets - by the Type 19 "FLATFISH"-class frigate. The Type 19, part of a new generation of Torian ships designed last year, represents a quantum leap ahead of the Type 9 and its contemporaries. Although believed to still be slightly inferior to the Battle Axe, it is far more advanced than any contemporary Arcean or Korx equivalent. The more common these ships become, the more Confederation forces will further gain the advantage in their wars.
Comparison of the Type 9 and Type 19 frigates.
Although many Torian battleship designs are known, the most commonly-used appears to be the Type 7 "BASS"-class. Roughly equivalent to our New York-class battleship, the Type 7, despite using outdated technology, has repeatedly bested Arcean and Korx battleships with ease - in fact, none of these ships has ever been confirmed by the OSO as destroyed. The key to this appears to be the extremely heavy use of Duranthium-alloy armor. Some further reports suggest that the Type 7 relies heavily on automation and can operate with an extremely small crew, but these are currently believed erroneous.
In addition, we are aware that the Confederation uses ships of a scale drastically larger than any other known civilization possesses - the dreadnought. Virtually nothing is known about these ships, and there has been no confirmed sighting of one, but it is clear that they exist. The following represents our best guess at the statistics of the Type 5 "DACE"-class dreadnought, the only known operational version.
Other Torian combat vessels vary widely in their qualities. Although the Confederation appears to have discontinued the construction of fighters, various types are still known to be in use. Very few of these are believed to be a threat to modern warships. Torian defenders are also frequently out of date; while some modern classes exist on a few worlds, many Torian colonies are still defended only by the hopelessly-obsolete Type 1.
Current information suggests that all Torian colonies have begun construction on a new line of eighth-generation warships, including a frigate, battleship, and dreadnought class. The number completed is currently extremely limited, and only the Type 21 "BLOWFISH"-class battleship is known to have any operational units. Most of our information about this ship is speculation, with the few known facts coming from the Scottlingas Tech Service. However, it is apparent that the Type 21 drastically outclasses any known warship by several orders of magnitude. It is unclear whether a New York class could even damage it, and Arcean, Krynn, and Korx ships would have no chance at all.
Unlike with Torian space forces, where we have had ample chances at observation and a few conflicts with Drath-purchased units during the Great Galactic War, there is very little available data on Torian ground forces. Their military is clearly seasoned and effective, having successfully conquered Iconia, Akilians Prime, Drengi, and several smaller planets. However, it is the opinion of this Office that Terran soldiering capacities are at least somewhat superior; certainly Confederation troops are not the equivalent of the Altarian forces encountered on DalNalten III. The currently-used Torian military transport is the Type 5 "TROUT"-class. Although capable of carrying a larger number of troops than our standard transport, it is extremely sluggish:
In fact, while this point will be returned to later, it should be emphasized now: with a few exceptions, Torian ships are very slow. Although Alliance AAF:S forces have proven faster than all known alien forces as a whole, the Torians - unlike the Altarians - have nothing capable of matching an Enterprise-class or even a Battle Axe for speed. The Torians are further hindered in this regard by using their only fast warship - the Type 19 - primarily as an escort for much slower battleships.
2.2: Torian Strategic Assets
Our information on the strategic assets at the Torian Confederation's disposal is significantly better than that on their military. The Torians, despite their militaristic policies, have a relatively open society, and while little direct contact was possible until the Enterprise expedition of 2232, we have gained a great deal of access since then. Furthermore, approximately 1.9 percent of the Alliance's population consists of Torian immigrants, mainly found on the border worlds of Gabe V and Rigel I, who have been forthcoming with information. (It should be noted now that, as supplementary document 3A indicates, there is no real potential for a pro-Confederation fifth column forming among these Torians).
For a long time following first contact, the Torian Confederation was the dominant power in the known galaxy, and in many respects it retains that status. A comparison of generalized statistical data for the Alliance and Confederation reveals the latter as superior in most areas, often by a large margin:
The Torians enjoy a particular advantage over us technologically. The Torian High Council is currently dominated by a Technologist faction, and it is clear that - certain public stereotypes to the contrary - Torians are easily as creative as humans. Currently, the Torians appear to be focused on developing new cultural-control topics to counter our project aimed at subverting their former Iconian colonies (see below).
Economically, the Torians are less sound. For reasons that the OSO has been unable to determine at the time of this writing, they have recently suffered a massive production collapse, putting billions of Torians out of work and leading to rising unhappiness on many planets. Although Torian industrial technology is definitely superior to our own, their continuing social difficulties in adjusting to it are a distinct weakness, and contribute to another as well: the support for the Confederation among its citizens is distinctly lukewarm. This should not be exaggerated, however, as despite day-to-day hardships, most Torians are still very much in support of their current government's policy of aggression.
Another Torian economic weakness was only recently determined. For reasons that this Office (despite all reasons of professional pride) cannot comprehend, the Confederation is spending an astonishing 1.6 trillion credits on espionage services:
Representing over 25% of the entire Confederation budget, this bizarre expense is perhaps the single major reason why the Torians, despite their size and economic strength, do not enjoy nearly as high an overall income as the Alliance does. OSO assessments suggest that only a minor economic weakening could cause the Torians to go into annual debt.
The final major weakness of Torian economic development is well-known by now: the inexplicable underdevelopment of several major Torian colony worlds.
Although the Torian Confederation has 28 worlds to the Alliance's 21, the failure to develop these worlds means that the long-term advantage may actually be on our side. OSO analysts are currently unable to determine any cause for this baffling underdevelopment except basic incompetence in Torian colonial planning.
Diplomatically, the Torians are relatively poorly off.
In addition to their ongoing wars with the Arceans and Korx, they are pursuing a campaign of conquest against the Dark Yor. Torian relations with the Krynn Consulate remain relatively unstable as well; despite the reestablishment of trade relations since the abortive war in 2233, tensions have cooled but not entirely dissipated.
The one solid diplomatic relationship the Confederation possesses is with the Altarians. OSO analysts believe that this alliance is unlikely to factor into any future Terran-Torian conflict: following the resumption of our own defensive pact with the Altarian government, the most likely move that government will make is to remain neutral. However, the Altarians will probably declare war on any of our allies that initiate a conflict against the Torians, potentially requiring the diversion of key Alliance resources to diplomatic efforts. As such, our own diplomatic service should take every step necessary to avoid such a conflict.
The state of Torian relations with the Drath Legion is currently unclear. In previous years, relations were close, with the Torians providing heavy support to the Drath during the GGW. As mentioned previously, this led to our only military encounters with Torian-designed space warships. Since the Drath military coup during that war, however, tensions have risen. I recommend that further resources be devoted to examining the current state of Drath space.
3.0: Recommendations
Currently, four basic threat areas exist in relation to the Torians: the former Iconian colonies, the Torian campaign against the Korx, the campaign against the Arceans, and the Alliance border colonies Gabe V and Rigel I. Other areas - such as Krynn space - might become involved in any future conflict, but currently do not have a strong Torian presence.
The OSO, in coordination with the Ministry of Diplomacy, is already pursuing subversive projects against the former Iconian colonies, chiefly New Iconia V and the Kievi System. These colonies are largely still populated by Iconians, who generally now enjoy a closer affinity for Alliance culture than that of the Torians or their former independent government. As noted earlier, the Torians are pursuing counter-influence efforts in response. Our current information suggests that these colonies are likely to eventually defect, but the process may be protracted. I therefore recommend the continued stationing of military forces in the area for the time being.
With the disintegration of much central Dominion authority, we have very little information on the state of the Torian campaign against the Korx. The best available information suggests that the Torians have turned the lead in this campaign over to the Altarian military, but Torian forces are still believed to be involved. However, Korx Section has indicated a strong belief that, unlike the Iconians, the Korx are unlikely to let the Torians take control of their planets should a sudden collapse occur. This area can probably be considered low-priority.
The campaign in Arcean space is more of a problem for Alliance interests. The Torians have deployed two identified fleets, both using relatively first-rate units. Arcean casualty rates are currently estimated at nearly 90% of engaged forces. However, alarmist interpretations of the situation should be strongly avoided. Arcean core space is currently under no threat, and no Torian invasion transports have been directed. Hasty action is unnecessary.
A long-term presence in the region should be established, however. Given the collapse of the Dark Yor military against Krynn and Altarian forces, one possibility would be to offer them planetary asylum, allowing the Alliance to acquire a strategically-located and high-quality planet. Initial probes in this direction have not been successful, however. A fallback plan would involve attempting to purchase a colony from the Thalan Empire, which remains bankrupt and should be easy to negotiate with despite our lack of reliable intelligence about them.
The most worrisome threat area is our border colonies. Gabe V is completely surrounded by Torian space, though no fleets are known to be near it. Rigel I, meanwhile, remains faced by the Torian Fleet 1151, which despite inferior tonnage can be considered a probable match for either of our nearby task forces. Although this area should be dealt with in more detail by the local commanders, I believe that Gabe V, at least, would be almost certainly indefensible in any full-scale conflict.
3.1: Conclusions
It is the opinion of this Office that, in the long run, an Alliance-Confederation war would be a probable victory for the former. Despite their many current advantages over us, the Torians appear to have reached a developmental peak, while our position appears to solidify. Unlike the continued meteoric growth of the Altarians, the Torian economy is in decline, and they have no forces posed to threaten our core worlds. In the long term, the advantage would be ours.
However, in the short term, a conflict with our current assets would be devastating. Gabe V and probably Rigel I would be conquered, and casualties would be excessive. Though tactical superiority - particularly using our advantage in speed - would be easy to achieve, loss ratios would be at unacceptable levels, particularly in any conflict against cutting-edge Torian units such as the eighth-generation warships.
Therefore, the best course for the Alliance to pursue at this time would be attempting a diplomatic settlement between the Arceans and Torians. The Arceans are unlikely to inflict significant damage upon Torian forces in an ongoing conflict, and an intervention on their side would be unwise. The best possibility is therefore to attempt to extract our allies from the mess they have gotten themselves into while we use the time to continue to build our strength.
Furthermore, it should be pointed out that, after the current crisis is defused, a longer-term detente with the Torians may be possible. Continued Alliance military growth, which appears likely, has the possibility to favorably impress them. Although this Office would not give it a high probability of success, the possibility for pursuing a permanent diplomatic solution with the Torians should not be dismissed merely because of a short-term rise in tensions. A longer view is advisable here.
Signed,
Colonel Fareed Sheridan, OSO, Torian Section Director
